Courtesy Yuriy Chumak<\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Their equipment is low-tech \u2013 machine-guns on the roofs of eight high-rise buildings. \u201cDrones were flying low, (so) it was realistic and cheap to shoot them down with a machine gun.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cAt night, we are on duty continuously. There are attacks every day now,\u201d Chumak added. <\/p>\n
The drone attacks seem calculated to instil fear rather than cause mass casualties, but several people have been killed in recent weeks. Among them was 15-year-old Mariya Troyanivska, described by her Kyiv school as an inspiration \u201cwho loved life and gave joy to everyone around her.\u201d <\/p>\n
The relentless attacks do appear to be eroding morale. The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology regularly asks people whether Ukraine should continue fighting for as long as it takes. The number saying yes has fallen from 73% in February to 63% last month. <\/p>\n
That perception is likely fed by news from the front, where Russian assaults continue to erode Ukrainian defenses, especially close to the key hub of Pokrovsk in Donetsk. <\/p>\n
The commander in chief of the military, Oleksander Syrskyi, said Saturday that, \u201cthe situation remains difficult and tends to escalate. The enemy, taking advantage of its numerical superiority, continues to conduct offensive actions and focuses its main efforts on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions.\u201d <\/p>\n
After a two-week trip to Ukraine last month, analyst Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting said the key problem is to integrate newly mobilized troops. <\/p>\n
Muzyka posted on X that the Ukrainian incursion into the Russian region of Kursk \u201chas stretched the already small Ukrainian forces even further.\u201d <\/p>\n
The Ukrainians are using a variety of battlefield drones to inflict losses on the Russians. Syrskyi said more than 52,000 enemy targets were destroyed or damaged by drones in October alone. <\/p>\n
But drones cannot compensate for a shortage of infantry, Muzyka reflected. Despite a law passed earlier this year to improve mobilization, \u201cthe presence of newly mobilized units\/soldiers is practically imperceptible.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cWe have a situation in which the Ukrainians not only cannot keep up with replacing losses, but also lose soldiers at an increasingly rapid pace due to falling morale,\u201d Muzyka said on X. <\/p>\n
Russian forces have become more adept at exploiting weaker points on the front line, enabling them to eat away at Ukrainian defenses within 6 miles (10 km) of Pokrovsk. <\/p>\n
On many other parts of the 600-mile frontline, the Ukrainians are also on the defensive, with some analysts expecting another Russian push in the south. The only gains for the Ukrainians this year have been inside Russia, where they launched a surprise incursion in the Kursk region in August. <\/p>\n
The negative outlook has darkened the mood among Ukraine\u2019s allies, who talk much less about Kyiv prevailing<\/em> on the battlefield \u2013 and much more about it holding enough ground to force the Kremlin to negotiate. <\/p>\n US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin implied as much. \u201cNo single capability will turn the tide. No one system will end Putin\u2019s assault. What matters is the combined effects of Ukraine\u2019s military capabilities \u2014 and staying focused on what works.\u201d <\/p>\n
Rym Montaz of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, assesses that there is a \u201cgrowing, quiet consensus that negotiations, which will entail accepting at least a temporary loss of sovereignty over territories, are the only way to end this war.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cKyiv is at one of its weakest points since February 2022, and the prospect of selling such a negotiation is a political minefield\u201d for Zelensky, Montaz says. <\/p>\n
Victory, defined by the Ukrainian government as ousting Russian troops from all its territory, is widely seen as unattainable. <\/p>\n
In a new essay in Foreign Affairs, Richard Haass says that \u201cWashington must grapple with the grim reality of the war and come to terms with a more plausible outcome.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cThere is no game-changing weapon or lifted restriction that would allow Ukraine to simultaneously defend what it already controls and liberate what it does not,\u201d Haas writes. <\/p>\n
Ukrainian officials are putting a brave face on a gloomy outlook. <\/p>\n
Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Saturday: \u201cI am convinced that we are all united by the goal of achieving a just peace for Ukraine and stopping Russian aggression \u2026 We are talking about a just peace, not appeasement.\u201d <\/p>\n
The path to any negotiation is \u2013 to put it mildly \u2013 unclear. The Kremlin says its goals in Ukraine are unchanged: the annexation of four eastern and southern Ukrainian regions. Russian forces already occupy almost all of Luhansk and substantial parts of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson \u2013 altogether some 20% of Ukraine. <\/p>\n
\u201cIf Ukraine wants to persuade Russia to join peace talks, it must first stabilize the front and rebuild its forces enough to be able to conduct offensives,\u201d says Muzyka. <\/p>\n
Talk of how to end the conflict will now go into overdrive with Donald Trump\u2019s election triumph. Trump has previously said he could end the war in 24 hours and in September he declared: \u201cI think it\u2019s in the US\u2019 best interest to get this war finished and just get it done.\u201d <\/p>\n
One option favored by his vice president-elect, JD Vance, is to freeze the conflict on its current lines with a heavily fortified demilitarized zone to deter future Russian aggression. Along a poorly defined front line hundreds of miles long, that would be a daunting and perhaps impossible task. <\/p>\n
It would reward the Kremlin with control of territories already seized. Moscow would also demand guarantees of Ukraine\u2019s neutrality or at least the indefinite suspension of its drive to join NATO. <\/p>\n
Even if on the backfoot, this would be impossible for President Volodymyr Zelensky to swallow without guarantees of Ukraine\u2019s future security. And after the sacrifices of the past 1,000 days, it would also be unpalatable to many Ukrainians. <\/p>\n
But the destination may be changing. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
This post appeared first on cnn.com<\/div>\n
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