Ireland\u2019s youngest ever prime minister, Simon Harris, may have thought he had a victory in Ireland\u2019s upcoming general election all but shored up. <\/p>\n
Touted as the TikTok taoiseach, Harris had used his last seven months in power to try and reassure Ireland\u2019s young population that, at 38 years old, he understands their frustrations over key issues such as an entrenched housing crisis, its own issue separate from the high cost of living. <\/p>\n
It all seemed to be going to plan with his political party, Fine Gael, riding high in the polls until last week when a clip went viral of Harris walking away from visibly upset care worker Charlotte Fallon, who tried to ask him questions on the campaign trail. <\/p>\n
Even before this, the center-right Fine Gael party had its work cut out trying to extend a 14-year stint in power, which in recent elections has only been achieved through complex coalition arrangements. If successful in Friday\u2019s ballot, the party will have achieved a new \u201crecord in Irish politics,\u201d according to David Farrell, a politics professor at University College Dublin. <\/p>\n
Political commentators say there is however a very real prospect that the party may fall victim to the incumbency curse, which has seen incumbent political parties around the globe fail to maintain their standing in elections this year. <\/p>\n
On Friday, Ireland will elect 174 members of parliament (TDs) by the system of proportional representation with a single vote. <\/p>\n
A poll published by the Irish Times newspaper on Monday found a 6-point drop in support for the taoiseach\u2019s party, just five days before the election. The three main parties, Fianna F\u00e1il, Fine Gael and Sinn F\u00e9in are polling at 21%, 19% and 20% respectively. Small parties and independents make up the remaining 40%. <\/p>\n
For the lifespan of the Irish republic, the government has been led by the two centrist parties, either Fine Gael or Fianna F\u00e1il, with a historic coalition that included the Green Party in 2020. <\/p>\n
Borne out of the two sides who fought against each other in the Irish civil war, which ended in 1923, the two parties now share many similarities when it comes to policy. Both have adopted a broadly centrist position over the years. <\/p>\n
Whilst in power, Fine Gael has overseen more economic liberal policy whilst Fianna F\u00e1il has tended to lean more toward the traditionally conservative side, although both have proven malleable. <\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s an unusual feature, because in most other European democracies, what you tend to find is the centrist parties are very weak,\u201d Farrell explains. <\/p>\n
In the 2020 election, to much surprise, the opposition party Sinn F\u00e9in won the popular vote but were thwarted by the main political parties who refused to enter government with them. <\/p>\n
Ahead of Friday\u2019s vote, Mike Miley, the head of Public Affairs for strategy firm Teneo in Ireland and a former Fine Gael press officer, described the coalition possibilities as \u201cvast and wide,\u201d stressing that \u201cwith the exception of a far-left government led by Sinn F\u00e9in\u201d any coalition will have to include two out of the three major parties. <\/p>\n
The major question being who will be willing to partner up. <\/p>\n
This election campaign has revealed a \u201chuge volatility amongst the Irish public\u201d still, Bray said. <\/p>\n
\u201cVoters want to see long term action on the housing and homeless crisis, but they were unsure which party offered a viable path to change,\u201d she added. <\/p>\n
One key arena where Irish politicians have vied for votes is social media. Simon Harris has prided himself on his prolific use of platforms such as Tik Tok and Instagram. However, social media experts have pointed out that some of his political opponents such as 35-year-old leader of the Social Democrats party, Holly Cairns, and Sinn F\u00e9in leader, Mary Lou McDonald, have much higher engagement levels. <\/p>\n