Over 1,000 days of war, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly warned Kyiv\u2019s Western allies of dire \u2013 potentially nuclear \u2013 consequences if they \u201cescalate\u201d the war by giving Ukraine the weapons it needs to defend itself. <\/p>\n
Putin\u2019s threats became even fiercer this month after the Biden administration finally gave Kyiv permission to launch longer-range American weapons at targets deep inside Russia. In response, Putin updated Russia\u2019s nuclear doctrine and fired a new, nuclear-capable ballistic missile at Ukraine. The message was taken as a clear threat to Ukraine\u2019s backers: Don\u2019t test us. <\/p>\n
But, nearly three years into the war, these developments have assumed a familiar rhythm. Each time Ukraine made a request \u2013 first asking for tanks, then fighter jets, then cluster munitions, then long-range weapons \u2013 its allies agonized over whether to grant it, fearing it would escalate the conflict and provoke a Russian response. <\/p>\n
Each time, when the West finally accepted Ukraine\u2019s requests, Russia\u2019s most catastrophic threats did not materialize. What was taboo one week became normal the next. <\/p>\n
Instead, they said the anxious reaction to Ukraine\u2019s newly granted powers is another example of the Kremlin\u2019s successful strategy of forcing the West to see the conflict on Russia\u2019s terms, confusing each fresh attempt by Ukraine to resist Russian aggression as a major \u201cescalation.\u201d <\/p>\n
Alongside the battlefields, the Kremlin has been engaged in a fight to force the West to argue from Russian premises rather than its own, and to \u201cmake decisions in that Kremlin-generation alternative reality that will allow Russia to win in the real world,\u201d the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a think-tank, said in a report in March. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe persistent Western debates and delays in Western military aid to Ukraine is a clear example of the Kremlin\u2019s successful reflexive control strategy, which had committed the Western to self-deterrence despite routine Russian escalations of the war,\u201d Stepanenko said. <\/p>\n
This strategy could be seen in action on Thursday after Russia launched a large-scale attack targeting Ukraine\u2019s power grid. Although Putin said the attack was \u201ca response from our side\u201d to the Biden administration\u2019s decision on longer-range weapons, Russia has not needed a pretext for such strikes in the past. <\/p>\n
The recent policy changes by Ukraine\u2019s Western allies \u2013 which came after Russia involved some 11,000 North Korean troops in its war effort \u2013 \u201cis not an escalation as the Kremlin is attempting to frame it,\u201d Stepanenko said. <\/p>\n
\u201cRussia launched an unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine and had been routinely escalating the war to sustain its initiative on the battlefield. The approval of Ukraine\u2019s use of long-range strike systems against Russia is finally allowing Ukraine to level out its capabilities,\u201d she said. <\/p>\n
The Biden administration sent US-made Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, to Ukraine earlier this year, but placed strict conditions on how they could be used: They could be fired at Russian targets in occupied Ukraine, but not on Russia\u2019s own territory. <\/p>\n
William Alberque, a former director of NATO\u2019s Arms Control, Disarmament, and WMD Non-Proliferation Centre, said this policy made little sense \u2013 and was to Russia\u2019s huge benefit. <\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m sure the Russian commanders couldn\u2019t believe their luck. \u2018So if I set up my command headquarters here, they\u2019ll blow me up, but if I set up a kilometer away, I\u2019m fine? Really? Awesome!\u2019\u201d <\/p>\n
In effect, this policy led to \u201cthe idea that Russia can kill anyone anywhere in Ukraine, but Ukraine can\u2019t kill the troops that are actually attacking them if they\u2019re across the border (in Russia).\u201d This idea is \u201cnonsense,\u201d Alberque said. <\/p>\n
Amid the anxious responses to last week\u2019s developments, it is easy to forget that Ukraine has long launched home-grown drones at targets extremely deep in Russia \u2013 and that it had already fired Western weapons at territory the Kremlin considers its own. The decision to fire slightly longer-range Western weapons is a difference of degree, not of kind. <\/p>\n
For more than a year, Kyiv has used British Storm Shadows to strike Crimea, which Russia has occupied since 2014. For months, Kyiv has been allowed to fire ATACMS at Russian targets in occupied Ukraine. By law, Russia considers these territories its own, and warned of dire consequences if Ukraine targeted them with Western weaponry. <\/p>\n
Since May, Washington has also allowed Kyiv to use shorter-range American rockets to strike targets in Russia across the border from Ukraine\u2019s northeastern Kharkiv region. Before President Joe Biden green-lighted that decision, Putin made similar nuclear threats, warning the move could lead to \u201cserious consequences\u201d for \u201csmall and densely populated countries.\u201d It did not. <\/p>\n
\u201cAgain and again, we prove that when you cross a fake red line \u2013 nothing really happens,\u201d said Alberque. Still, he said the threats were enough to prevent the West from giving Ukraine what it needed to defend itself. <\/p>\n
Although the threats have yet again intensified following last week\u2019s developments, Albuquerque said there is little reason to suspect that this time really is different. The prospect of an incoming Donald Trump administration \u2013 long assumed to be Putin\u2019s desired outcome \u2013 means Russia is even less likely than usual to make good on its threats. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe (risk) that they\u2019re suddenly going to do something that would risk actual intervention by the United States or by NATO allies \u2013 or would fundamentally change global attitudes towards the conflict \u2013 is relatively low,\u201d said Alberque. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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