A night of political upheaval in South Korea has upended stability in a key democratic US ally \u2013 sending shock waves through the region and Washington at a moment of acute global tension. <\/p>\n
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law on Tuesday night in a surprise decree that was reversed hours later following overwhelming opposition across the political spectrum for what was widely seen as a breach of the country\u2019s vibrant democracy. <\/p>\n
The move, which Yoon claimed was necessary to \u201csave the country against anti-state forces\u201d trying to destroy the \u201cconstitutional order of liberal democracy,\u201d was met by protests in Seoul and mounting calls for the president\u2019s resignation. <\/p>\n
The stunning development appeared to catch Washington off guard. That\u2019s an unnerving reality for the United States military, which has nearly 30,000 troops and its largest overseas base in South Korea, serving as a check against a belligerent North Korea and counterweight to an aggressive China in a strategically critical region. <\/p>\n
The turmoil has the potential for significant ramifications at a moment of deepening geopolitical fault lines in Asia, where both North Korea and China are strengthening their alignment with Russia as it wages war on Ukraine. <\/p>\n
Leaders in Pyongyang, Beijing and Moscow are likely watching the developments in Seoul with an eye to its potential to undermine a key bastion of US power in the region \u2013 and all eyes are now on North Korea, which may be keen to use the political chaos to its advantage. <\/p>\n
The US-South Korea alliance has long been seen by both countries as a cornerstone of peace in the region, where North Korea continues to threaten South Korea and the US with its illegal weapons program. <\/p>\n
That threat has only become more acute as North Korea has ramped up its partnership with Russia, sending ammunition, missiles, and soldiers, intelligence officials say, to aid Moscow\u2019s war against Ukraine. <\/p>\n
US President Joe Biden has worked assiduously during his time in office to bolster the US partnership with South Korea, meeting Yoon multiple times, referring to the South Korean leader as a \u201cgreat friend,\u201d and earlier this year passing his \u201cSummit for Democracy\u201d to Yoon to host in South Korea. <\/p>\n
Biden\u2019s efforts also included a landmark 2023 summit at Camp David with Japan and South Korea, where the US president navigated around historic mistrust between the two US allies to broker enhanced trilateral coordination. <\/p>\n
A US National Security Council spokesperson expressed \u201crelief\u201d after Yoon reversed course on what the spokesperson described as his \u201cconcerning declaration,\u201d adding that \u201cdemocracy is at the foundation\u201d of the US-South Korea alliance. <\/p>\n
Despite US assurances that the alliance remains \u201cironclad,\u201d the surprise move by Yoon could cast a level of doubt on the partnership and weaken the burgeoning Japan-South Korea partnership, observers say. <\/p>\n
It also adds another level of uncertainty on the eve of the return to the White House of President-elect Donald Trump, who has previously expressed skepticism about the financial arrangement between the US and South Korea on hosting US troops. <\/p>\n
\u201cYoon\u2019s actions most likely will raise questions about South Korea\u2019s reliability and predictability as an ally and a partner in the eyes of the United States and Japan,\u201d said Rachel Minyoung Lee, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington. <\/p>\n
\u201cThis is serious in light of the fact that there is now a stronger-than ever nuclear component in the (US-South Korea) alliance,\u201d she added, pointing to a 2023 mechanism upgrading cooperation on nuclear deterrence between the US and South Korea, which does not have its own nuclear weapons but relies on the US arsenal. <\/p>\n
The political turmoil also raises a potential opening for Kim Jong Un to capitalize on the chaos. <\/p>\n
The North Korean leader is known to choose opportune political moments for major weapons tests \u2013 for example firing a new intercontinental ballistic missile days before the US presidential election last month. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe know that North Korea likes to lampoon South Korea\u2019s democratic system whenever there is tumult in Seoul,\u201d said Edward Howell, a lecturer in politics at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, who focuses on the Korean Peninsula. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe should not be surprised if Pyongyang exploits the domestic crisis in South Korea to its advantage, either rhetorically or otherwise,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n
The developments \u2013 and the potential, now, for a change of leadership in South Korea \u2013 are also likely being closely watched by Beijing and Moscow, who both deeply oppose US military presence in Asia. <\/p>\n
Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his officials in particular have watched with ire as the US has strengthened its partnerships with allies in the region \u2013 in the face of concerns in Washington about a growing threat from Beijing and its deepening security coordination with Moscow. <\/p>\n
And Yoon, who\u2019s taken a harder line on North Korea than many of his predecessors, has been a willingly staunch partner of the US. <\/p>\n
The Yoon government has also suggested that deployment of North Korean troops into Ukraine could cause it to reassess the level of military support it gives to the war-torn country, to which it does not directly supply lethal arms. <\/p>\n
All that raises the international stakes for the current political moment, whatever its outcome for Yoon, according to Howell. <\/p>\n
\u201cAt a time when South Korea\u2019s interests in the Ukraine war have gained prominence, given North Korea\u2019s now full-fledged involvement, Seoul\u2019s cooperation with allies cannot be hampered by domestic division,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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