Iran is currently mulling over US President Donald Trump\u2019s offer for talks on a new nuclear deal. Its answer will hinge on one key factor: Whether it believes that it can come out of it undefeated. <\/p>\n
The communication contained \u201cmore of a threatening posture,\u201d but apparently also offered \u201csome opportunities\u201d for Iran, the country\u2019s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Thursday, saying a response will come \u201cin the coming days.\u201d <\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s envoy, Steve Witkoff, delivered the letter to the president of the United Arab Emirates last week, according to the source, and a UAE official passed it on the Iranians. <\/p>\n
In an interview with journalist Tucker Carlson over the weekend, Witkoff offered some insight into the letter\u2019s contents. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt roughly said: I\u2019m a president of peace, that\u2019s what I want. There\u2019s no reason for us to do this militarily. We should talk. We should clear up the misconceptions. We should create a verification program so that nobody worries about weaponization of your nuclear material, and I\u2019d like to get to that place, because the alternative is not a very good alternative.\u201d <\/p>\n
This month, the United States launched strikes on one of the few remaining Iran-allied militias still posing a potent threat to its interests. The attacks on Yemen\u2019s Houthi rebels served as a warning shot \u2013 a preview of what Iran itself might face if it refuses to cooperate, US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz told ABC News. <\/p>\n
With Iran\u2019s economy in freefall, its grip on the region slipping and public anger mounting, US officials may see a perfect opportunity to force Tehran\u2019s hand \u2013 by tightening the economic noose and making the threat of military action unmistakably clear. <\/p>\n
But experts warn it won\u2019t be that straightforward: Iran is deeply wary of appearing weak, and the last thing it wants is to be seen as capitulating to Trump. <\/p>\n
Tehran has in recent weeks repeatedly rejected direct negotiations over a potential nuclear deal with the US, saying it won\u2019t come to the table with a gun pointed to its head and fears that Washington will once again renege on its commitments, as it did seven years ago during Trump\u2019s first presidential term. <\/p>\n
In its response to Trump\u2019s recent letter, Iran will take into account \u201cboth the threats and the opportunities,\u201d Araghchi said, vowing that it wouldn\u2019t negotiate \u201cunder pressure and threats or increased sanctions.\u201d <\/p>\n
Talks would have to take place \u201cunder equal footing,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n
For Iran, giving in to Trump\u2019s maximalist approach of piling on more sanctions and repeatedly threatening military action equates to surrender, a position it is not willing to entertain, experts said. <\/p>\n
Iranian leaders have dismissed the idea of speaking to Washington, with President Masoud Pezeshkian saying this month that Iran \u201cwon\u2019t bow in humiliation before anyone.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cI won\u2019t come to negotiate with you. Go do whatever the hell you want,\u201d Pezeshkian was cited as saying by the Tehran Times. <\/p>\n
It comes after the Trump administration reinstated a maximum pressure campaign on Iran in February, aimed at preventing the Islamic Republic from building a nuclear weapon. <\/p>\n
According to the memorandum, the US would also \u201cimplement a campaign aimed at driving Iran\u2019s oil exports to zero,\u201d and deny Iran intercontinental ballistic missiles. <\/p>\n
But analysts say that Trump\u2019s efforts to arm-twist the Iranians may not have the desired effect, since yielding to Washington completely is considered as too dangerous a move for Tehran under the current geopolitical climate. <\/p>\n
From Iran\u2019s standpoint \u201cthe risk of capitulation is even more dangerous, and I don\u2019t think the Trump administration is fully grasping that,\u201d Parsi said. <\/p>\n
Since Israel began its war in Gaza on October 7, 2023, Iran and Israel have exchanged two rounds of tit-for-tat attacks, the first time either side has directly attacked the other, as Iran-backed militias across the region launched strikes against Israeli and US interests in protest at the Gaza conflict. <\/p>\n
With Israel\u2019s decapitation campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the war in Gaza against Hamas, the Islamic Republic\u2019s influence in the region has weakened significantly. <\/p>\n
Its nuclear program is now one of its final points of leverage. In December, United Nations nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi told Reuters that Iran is \u201cdramatically\u201d accelerating its enrichment of uranium to up to 60% purity, closer to the roughly 90% level that is weapons grade. In January, Grossi again warned that Iran is \u201cpressing the gas pedal\u201d on its uranium enrichment. <\/p>\n
Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful. <\/p>\n
Experts point to a deep-seated mistrust in Washington\u2019s reliability as a key factor behind Iran\u2019s hesitation to engage with Trump on a new deal. <\/p>\n
A controversial exchange between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Oval Office last month only reinforced that idea for the Islamic Republic. <\/p>\n
During that exchange, Trump and Vice President JD Vance berated the Ukrainian president in front of international media. <\/p>\n
\u201cZelensky was asked to say \u2018thank you,\u2019 admit that Ukraine has \u2018no cards,\u2019 and \u2018respect\u2019 the Americans after he asked for security guarantees,\u201d the Tehran Times wrote, citing Pezeshkian\u2019s reasons for refusing to talk to Trump. <\/p>\n
\u201cYou should be ashamed of yourself after what you did to Zelensky recently,\u201d Iranian media cited Pezeshkian as saying. <\/p>\n
From Tehran\u2019s perspective, if Washington can turn its back on an ally, there\u2019s little reason to believe it would keep its commitment to an adversary. As Trump\u2019s letter made its way to Iran, Khamenei reiterated his refusal to engage with Washington, reminding the world that this is the same American president who, in 2018, unilaterally withdrew from the landmark nuclear deal brokered with world powers just three years earlier. <\/p>\n
Formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, the agreement was intended to limit Iran\u2019s nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions, thereby preventing Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. <\/p>\n
In a post on X this month, Khamenei said Trump was trying to \u201cdeceive public opinion\u201d by saying Washington is ready to negotiate. <\/p>\n
\u201cHow could we hold negotiations with (the) US when we know they don\u2019t fulfill their commitments?\u201d Khamenei said, adding that \u201cif the goal of entering negotiations is for the sanctions to be removed, negotiating with this US administration won\u2019t result in the sanctions being removed.\u201d <\/p>\n
Further complicating the potential for new talks between Tehran and Washington are Iran\u2019s domestic politics, with anti-US hardliners and pro-talks reformists jostling for power. <\/p>\n
Experts said that it is in the interest of both the US and Iran to strike a deal while they still can. <\/p>\n
\u201cIran\u2019s maximum point of leverage is right now, where there is interest in negotiating and Iran can obtain concessions and sanctions relief during this period,\u201d Vakil said. \u201cThe moment Iran weaponizes (its nuclear program), Iran loses that leverage.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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