Max Rossi\/Reuters<\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Cardinal Blase Cupich of Chicago and Cardinal Oswald Gracias, the retired archbishop of Bombay could both exercise this \u201ckingmaker\u201d role, as could Cardinal Christophe Pierre, the former papal ambassador to the United States or Cardinal Arthur Roche, a British Vatican official. Then there is Honduran Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga, who is hugely experienced, multilingual and will be supporting a candidate who is in keeping with Francis\u2019 pastoral priorities. <\/p>\n
Cardinal Marc Ouellet, the Canadian prelate who for years ran the Vatican\u2019s office for appointing bishops, is also a figure likely to influence proceedings, as could Ghanian Cardinal Peter Turkson, who runs the pontifical academy of sciences, and Cardinal Timothy Dolan of New York. Some of the most critical voices come from among the retired cardinals such as Joseph Zen from Hong Kong, who has been a vocal critic of Francis and the Vatican\u2019s diplomatic rapprochement with China. <\/p>\n
There is also a sizeable number of cardinals who may wish to follow the Francis reforms but to do so with a pope who is more predictable and with less of the \u201cshock and awe\u201d of the late pontiff. <\/p>\n
During the Francis pontificate, a group of cardinals took the highly unusual step of publicly challenging the pope over his decision to allow communion for divorced and remarried Catholics while, on two occasions, anonymous memos from unnamed cardinals strongly criticizing Francis were published. <\/p>\n
The first was released under the pseudonym \u201cDemos\u201d and later turned out to have been written by Australian Cardinal George Pell, whom Francis had appointed as Vatican treasurer. The second, \u201cDemos II,\u201d accused the late pope of governing in an autocratic style and said the next pontiff must work for the \u201crecovery and reestablishment of truths that have been slowly obscured or lost among many Christians.\u201d <\/p>\n
The forthcoming conclave will take place amid the glare of social media and the cardinals will need to make sure they vet candidates closely. One church historian has written about the possible \u201ccatastrophe\u201d of a newly elected pope being forced to resign in an imagined scenario where allegations of failing to deal with a sexual abuse complaint suddenly surface online. This papal election takes place in an atmosphere where one allegation, if it sticks, could quickly torpedo a candidacy. <\/p>\n
Then there are plenty of forces in the church seeking to influence the vote, many of them well funded, organized and with ties to the United States. In December 2024, a website, titled \u201cThe College of Cardinals Report,\u201d was launched giving a breakdown on where the cardinals stand on blessing same-sex couples, ordaining women deacons and \u201cVatican-China secret accords.\u201d The site comes from groups who are deeply opposed to the Francis pontificate. <\/p>\n
And six years earlier, it emerged that a group in the United States was seeking more than $1 million to compile dossiers on candidates in an attempt to prevent a repeat of the conclave that elected Francis. When members of this group, \u201cThe Red Hat Report,\u201d presented their project, they portrayed it as an attempt to improve governance and accountability within the Church and said \u201cwe may not have had Pope Francis\u201d had it been in existence then. <\/p>\n
For several years before the pope\u2019s death, those opposed to his papacy had been discussing how to influence the next conclave. In 2020 two books, both titled \u201cThe Next Pope,\u201d were published, both by authors known to be critics of Francis. One of them was even circulated among his peers by Dolan, the US cardinal, despite church laws that say prelates must not publicly discuss possible papal candidates. <\/p>\n
A driving force behind some of the pre-conclave maneuvers was Pell, who had a formidable network of contacts and was politically skilled: the Australian prelate had reportedly pushed conservative Hungarian Cardinal P\u00e9ter Erd\u0151 as a papal candidate. <\/p>\n
After his conviction for child sex abuse was overturned by the High Court of Australia, Pell returned to Rome and took on an active role preparing for the next conclave. However, Pell\u2019s death in January 2023 at the age of 81 left the opposition to Francis without an obvious leader. <\/p>\n
When the cardinals decide who should be elected pope, various factors will be taken into consideration. A potential dividing line might emerge over the pope\u2019s decision to allow same-sex blessings, with several bishops in Africa and Eastern Europe strongly resisting this move. Would the African and Eastern European cardinals vote as a bloc for a candidate who is sympathetic to their views on this topic? <\/p>\n
Francis\u2019 choice of cardinals from very different parts of the world means that some of the papal electors do not know each other that well. Some also do not speak Italian, the working language of the Vatican (although English and Spanish are widely used). This would give an advantage to any candidate who has been able to get to know the cardinals well and has a role convening or leading them during the pre-conclave period. <\/p>\n
In 2005, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger\u2019s guidance of the pre-conclave meetings, his linguistic abilities and the homily he preached at a Mass ahead of the vote played a key part in his election as Pope Benedict XVI. <\/p>\n
After the action-packed Francis papacy, there may be other cardinals who, although supportive of the late pope, want someone who is less of a newsmaker and disruptor. They might opt to go for someone low-key. <\/p>\n
Nevertheless, it seems likely that whoever is chosen as pope will be expected by Catholics across the world to continue with the major reforms that Francis began, and to try to continue to \u201cinstitutionalize\u201d the changes that he called for in the Catholic Church. <\/p>\n
But don\u2019t discount the determination of those seeking to find any way they can to slam the brakes on the Francis project. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
This post appeared first on cnn.com<\/div>\n
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