The outcome of the defining conflict between Iran and Israel may depend on one simple number, which is at very best a rough estimate. <\/p>\n
Israeli military data and expert analysis say Iran has fired about 700 of its medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM) at Israel over the past 14 months, leaving it with anything between 300 to 1,300 left in its stockpile. <\/p>\n
This remaining arsenal is subject to Israel\u2019s fierce air assault of the past five days, with the IDF saying it has targeted at least a third of the surface-to-surface launchers that fire MRBMs, possibly further reducing Iran\u2019s ability to strike back at Israel. <\/p>\n
The depletion of its arsenal may compound Iran\u2019s desire to negotiate its way out of the conflict and also intensify the ferocity of the Israeli campaign in the coming days, analysts have said, as Israeli airpower finds itself almost unchallenged and Iran\u2019s nightly assaults on Israeli cities seem recently to have ebbed. <\/p>\n
Few reliable estimates for Iran\u2019s stockpile exist, although US CENTCOM\u2019s commander General Kenneth McKenzie said in 2023 that they had more than 3,000 missiles of different ranges. Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said likely 1,000 to 2,000 of these were medium-range, capable of spanning the 1,400 kilometers between Iran and Israel. He called the estimate \u201cat best a back-of-the-envelope calculation.\u201d <\/p>\n
According to the IDF, Iran used 120 MRBMs in its April 13 attack last year on Israel, another 200 on October 1, and a total of 380 in the past five days. This tally would deplete its overall known arsenal by a total of 700. But whether it leaves Tehran with an existential crisis over its missile deterrence depends on both the size of its initial stockpile, and what damage Israel has done to Iran\u2019s military infrastructure, since it began striking across the country on Friday. <\/p>\n
Ben Taleblu suggested this might leave Iran with 1,300 MRBMs. Other estimates were more pessimistic. Dr. Eyal Pinko, a retired Israeli naval intelligence officer, now a senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, said: \u201cTaking into consideration that they fired around 400 to 500 in the last four days and Israel destroyed some of the arsenal of what they had, I believe they have now 800 to 700.\u201d <\/p>\n
The few glimpses of the damage done to Iran\u2019s air defenses and missile production from Israeli strikes on October 26 have revealed a significant toll. Admiral Tony Radakin, the UK\u2019s Chief of the Defence Staff, said in a December speech that 100 Israeli aircraft had fired as many missiles from as many miles away and \u201ctook down nearly the entirety of Iran\u2019s air defense system. It has destroyed Iran\u2019s ability to produce ballistic missiles for a year.\u201d <\/p>\n
But recently Israel has amplified the threat that Iran\u2019s missile production poses. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday, as Israel launched its air campaign, that Iran had sped up its manufacture of ballistic missiles to 300 a month, which could leave them with 20,000 in six years. He did not provide evidence for the claim. <\/p>\n
Pinko said the 2024 strikes had \u201cdestroyed the main facilities for manufacturing ballistic missiles motors\u201d in Iran, creating severe limitations to the country\u2019s supply chain. Still, he notes that potential assistance from China in the coming months could boost production again. <\/p>\n
Iran would not want its arsenal of MRBMs to sink \u201cbelow four digits,\u201d said Ben Taleblu. <\/p>\n
\u201cFor the Islamic Republic, quantity has a quality of its own,\u201d he said, adding that Iran excels \u201cin crisis management but is actually a poor conventional warfighter. And having to expend these ballistic missiles during a time of war, rather than a time of crisis precisely puts it in this bind.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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