For months the talk in Kyiv was of a much-anticipated Russian offensive that would aim to gobble up more of the Ukraine\u2019s eastern regions. So far, it\u2019s been underwhelming \u2013 but the Russians have made some gains and vastly reinforced their troop numbers in some areas. <\/p>\n
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to pursue territorial gains as ceasefire talks take a back seat. Last week he restated what has long been one of his key ways of justifying his unprovoked invasion. <\/p>\n
\u201cI consider the Russian and Ukrainian peoples to be one people,\u201d he said. \u201cIn this sense, all of Ukraine is ours.\u201d <\/p>\n
Even so, the Ukrainians have launched counterattacks in some areas and are rapidly developing a domestic weapons industry. And Russia\u2019s wartime economy is facing stronger headwinds. <\/p>\n
Russian troops are trying to advance in multiple areas of the 1,200-kilometer (746-mile) frontline. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said this week there are now 111,000 Russian troops in one part of the frontline alone \u2013 near the flashpoint city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk, where there are at least 50 clashes every day. That compares to about 70,000 Russian troops in the area last December, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. <\/p>\n
Syrskyi also claimed that the Russian infiltration of the northern region of Sumy had been halted. The Institute for the Study of War \u2013 a Washington-based think-tank, says Ukrainian forces have regained some territory in Sumy and the pace of Russian advances there has slowed. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe can say that the wave of attempts at a \u2018summer offensive\u2019 launched by the enemy from Russian territory is fizzling out,\u201d Syrskyi claimed. <\/p>\n
But it\u2019s a mixed picture. In recent days Russian infantry assaults have gained ground on the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The Russian defense ministry claimed on Saturday that another village, Zirka, had been taken. <\/p>\n
DeepState, a Ukrainian open-source analyst, asserted that Ukrainian \u201cdefenses continue to collapse rapidly, and the enemy is making significant advances \u2026 with constant assaults\u201d in that area. <\/p>\n
The Kremlin has long insisted its campaign will continue until it holds all of the eastern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. (It already occupies all but a sliver of Luhansk). <\/p>\n
At the current rate of progress that would take many years. But with the Trump administration apparently less committed to driving ceasefire negotiations, the conflict seems likely to drag on through the end of the year and into 2026. <\/p>\n
The three-dimensional battlefield is now an unlikely combination of ingenious drone-led special operations and very basic infantry assaults. <\/p>\n
At one end of the spectrum, Ukraine\u2019s audacious attacks at the beginning of June on Russian strategic bombers used drones operated from trucks deep inside Russian territory \u2013 a mission that took out about a dozen aircraft used to launch missiles against Ukraine. <\/p>\n
Ukraine\u2019s Security Service reported another drone attack Saturday that it clamed had caused extensive damage to a Russian airbase in Crimea. <\/p>\n
By contrast, Russian soldiers on foot and motorbikes \u2013 sometimes in groups of a dozen or less \u2013 push into abandoned villages in eastern Ukraine, with drones for cover but no armor in site. It\u2019s an approach that is forcing a change in Ukrainian tactics: to smaller fortified positions. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said last week that defenses were being camouflaged to match the terrain and made smaller to avoid detection. <\/p>\n
While infantry defend or take territory, drones continue to play a greater role in shaping the conflict. The Russians are churning out cheap, mass-produced drones designed to overwhelm air defenses and allow some of their missiles to get through. The Russians have increasingly used this tactic to hit Ukrainian cities, especially Kyiv, which has sustained considerable damage and higher civilian casualties in recent weeks. <\/p>\n
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that overnight \u201c477 drones were in our skies, most of them Russian-Iranian Shaheds, along with 60 missiles of various types. The Russians were targeting everything that sustains life.\u201d <\/p>\n
The Russians use \u201cup to 500 (Iranian designed) Shaheds per night, combining them with ballistic and cruise missiles \u2014 aiming to exhaust our air defenses,\u201d says Umerov. <\/p>\n
Zelensky has reiterated pleas for more Patriot missile batteries and other western systems, which Trump said last week that the US \u201cshould consider\u201d because of large-scale attacks on Ukrainian cities. <\/p>\n
Zelensky has said Ukraine is prepared to buy Patriots directly or through the fund established by the US-Ukrainian minerals deal. <\/p>\n
Both sides are producing drones of all types at an astonishing rate. Ukraine\u2019s Security Service reckons Russia is producing nearly 200 Iranian-designed Shahed drones every day, and has an inventory of some 6,000, in addition to about 6,000 decoy drones. Over the last week, the Russians have used more than 23,000 small \u201ckamikaze\u201d drones on the frontlines, according to the Ukrainian military\u2019s General Staff. <\/p>\n
It\u2019s a never-ending race in design and production. Syrskyi said recently that Russia had developed an edge in fiber-optic-controlled drones, which are more difficult to track and intercept. <\/p>\n
Drone warfare is a \u201cconstant intellectual struggle \u2014 the enemy regularly changed algorithms, and Ukraine adapted tactics in response,\u201d Umerov said. \u201cSolutions that showed high effectiveness at the beginning of the war have lost it over time as the enemy changed tactics.\u201d <\/p>\n
For its part, Ukraine is stepping up production of the long-range drones it has used to attack Russian infrastructure, such as airfields, refineries and transport. Umerov said \u201ctens of thousands\u201d would be produced, in addition to more than four million battlefield drones this year. <\/p>\n
Both sides continue to build defense industries that allow them to keep fighting \u2013 even if the scale of Russian production far outstrips that of Ukraine. Russia\u2019s huge military conglomerate Rostec is producing an estimated 80% of the equipment used against Ukraine. <\/p>\n
Its CEO Sergey Chemezov claimed at a meeting with Putin this month that Rostec\u2019s production has grown tenfold since 2021, and its revenues rose last year to an eye-watering $46 billion. <\/p>\n
But there are darkening clouds on the horizon. Russia\u2019s military budget is some 40% of its total public spending \u2013 more than 6% of its GDP. That\u2019s stoked inflation, and Putin acknowledged last week that growth this year would be \u201cmuch more modest\u201d to combat rising prices. He even suggested that defense spending would decline next year. <\/p>\n
One senior Russian official, Maksim Reshetnikov, who is Economic Development minister, said that \u201cbased on current business sentiment, it seems to me we are on the brink of transitioning into recession.\u201d <\/p>\n
The head of Russia\u2019s Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, disagreed with Reshetnikov but warned that financial buffers like the national reserve fund are nearly depleted. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe must understand that many of these resources have been used up,\u201d she told the St. Petersburg International Forum. <\/p>\n
Putin himself acknowledged the risk, saying that while some experts predicted stagnation, it should \u201cnot be allowed under any circumstances.\u201d <\/p>\n
While the longer-term prognosis for Russia may be gloomy \u2013 economically and demographically \u2013 it can continue in the short-term to fund an army of more than half-a-million men that\u2019s in Ukraine or close to its border, taking a few kilometers here and there. Despite hundreds of thousands of casualties, the Russian military can still generate forces far greater than Ukraine. <\/p>\n
His eye still very much on the prize, Putin said last week: \u201cWe have a saying \u2026 where the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that is ours.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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