Israel, aided by its allies, dodged a bullet Sunday. <\/p>\n
To be more precise, 60 tons of explosives aboard more than 350 Iranian projectiles, some bigger than a family car, failed to dodge Israel\u2019s defenses. <\/p>\n
Yet Israel, in defiance of US President Joe Biden\u2019s warnings to \u201ctake the win\u201d and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi\u2019s threat of a \u201csevere, extensive and painful\u201d response to any retaliation, is contemplating just that. <\/p>\n
Deterrence, shorthand for \u201cmeanest S.O.B. in the room,\u201d Israel believes, is the cornerstone of its survival. Iran is stealing that brick. <\/p>\n
In a paradigm shift after decades of shadow proxy war, Tehran is usurping Israel\u2019s strategy. \u201cWe have decided to create a new equation,\u201d Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami said. \u201cWe will retaliate against them [Israel]\u201d. <\/p>\n
When faced with existential threats in the past, Israel has executed the most audacious raids the region has ever witnessed. Cloaked in extreme secrecy in 1981, they bombed Iraq\u2019s nuclear reactor at Osirak before it went on line. Similarly, in 2007, they bombed Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad\u2019s nuclear reactor before it could be built. <\/p>\n
Both attacks partnered intelligence with conventional military assets. It was 11 years before Israel admitted to the Syria strike. <\/p>\n
The point being, Israel won\u2019t telegraph its attack plans as Iran did at the weekend. <\/p>\n
Aside from the core members of Israel\u2019s war cabinet \u2013 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Netanyahu\u2019s former biggest political rival Benny Ganz \u2013 more than a dozen other people have sat at the table deep inside the Kirya, Israel\u2019s maximum security defense headquarters in Tel Aviv, thrashing out their next move. <\/p>\n
Notably, Mossad Chief David Barnea and Army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi are among several security and intelligence officials who have been brought in. <\/p>\n
Outside the room, Netanyahu faces huge pressure from his hard right governing coalition. Bezalel Smotrich is demanding he \u201crestore deterrence,\u201d and popular Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir is calling on the prime minister to \u201cgo crazy.\u201d <\/p>\n
Outside Israel, where allies are condemning Iran\u2019s attack but urging restraint and some are also bitter about Netanyahu\u2019s deadly treatment of Gaza\u2019s Palestinians since Hamas\u2019s brutal October <\/strong>7 attack, calls for fresh sanctions on Tehran are growing. <\/p>\n War cabinet members Ganz and Gallant are both seized of the diplomatic opportunity \u2013 Ganz saying, \u201cwe will build a regional coalition to exact a price from Iran\u201d, while Gallant, according to a government press release, \u201chighlighted the opportunity to establish an international coalition and strategic alliance to counter the threat posed by Iran.\u201d The defence minister <\/strong>has hinted <\/strong>heavily that Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities are in his sights, saying it is \u201ca state that threatens to place nuclear warheads on its missiles.\u201d <\/p>\n Netanyahu, meanwhile, said in a statement on the X account of his office, \u201cThe international community must continue to stand united in resisting this Iranian aggression, which threatens world peace.\u201d <\/p>\n Netanyahu\u2019s next move will likely try to lock in sanctions, and strike before negative Gaza headlines dump the international good will filling his sails. <\/p>\n The clock is ticking. He needs two things, time to prepare a significant surprise strike, and time to coalesce international diplomacy. As both march to different beats, his legendary political acumen faces one of its stiffest tests yet. <\/p>\n Recent evidence suggests his finger no longer feels the regional pulse as it once did. <\/p>\n Earlier this year, following Israel\u2019s precise, targeted assassination of Saleh Al-Arouri, Hamas\u2019s Lebanese chief, in a second-floor Beirut apartment, the former fighter pilot and former head of the IDF\u2019s Military Intelligence Directorate Amos Yadlin told me Israel was acting inside \u201cred lines\u201d to avoid escalation. <\/p>\n \u201cThe threshold is quite flexible,\u201d Yadlin explained. \u201cDeterrence is a decision at the head of a leader that can give a command to pull the trigger to launch a missile to start a war.\u201d <\/p>\n Yadlin knows a thing or two about deterrence and Israel\u2019s past strikes against the nation\u2019s existential threats. He was the fighter pilot who dropped the bomb that destroyed Iraq\u2019s Osirak reactor in 1981, and in 2007 was the intelligence chief who planned the sophisticated audacious strike destroying Bashar al-Assad\u2019s nuclear plant. <\/p>\n Last weekend, Iran\u2019s leaders decided Netanyahu\u2019s calculation to kill Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the IRGC\u2019s commander running their proxies threatening Israel from Syria and Lebanon, in their Damascus consulate on April 1 had crossed a red line. Netanyahu\u2019s calculation was wrong. <\/p>\n \u201cI think the Iranians will be very, very careful, even if after a provocation is they will suffer a loss, but starting a war with the US or even with Israel. They are not there yet. The damage that can be inflicted on Iran is huge, is huge.\u201d <\/p>\n So the most important question right now must be, can Netanyahu read the room right \u2013 with Iran threatening to attack, allies warning him not to \u2013 and avoid triggering a regional war. <\/p>\n And the answer to that is buried in Yadlin\u2019s remarkable insights. Iran, he implied, won\u2019t attack Israel as long as it fears America\u2019s reaction. Netanyahu has so strained relations with the Biden administration over Gaza, Israel\u2019s enemies smell blood. <\/p>\n Since the US abstained at a UN Security Council vote last month to call for ceasefire in Gaza, Hamas has taken an intransigent turn to hostage negotiations. <\/p>\n Netanyahu is famed as a political survivor. But now he faces the biggest gamble of his career. He is betting the blood of his nation over Iran\u2019s read of his rift with America. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Israel, aided by its allies, dodged a bullet Sunday. 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