CHICAGO \u2014 Cardi B was part of Bad Bunny\u2019s Super Bowl halftime show. What she did exactly, well, that turned into a perplexing question for two major prediction markets.<\/p>\n
At least one Kalshi trader filed a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over how the prediction market handled Sunday\u2019s appearance by the Grammy-winning rapper. The result of a similar event contract on Polymarket also drew the ire of some users on that platform.<\/p>\n
Prediction markets provide an opportunity to trade \u2014 or wager \u2014 on the result of future events. The markets are comprised of typically yes-or-no questions called event contracts, with the prices connected to what traders are willing to pay, which theoretically indicates the perceived probability of an event occurring.<\/p>\n
The buy-in for each contract ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what traders think could happen.<\/p>\n
More than $47.3 million was wagered on Kalshi\u2019s market for \u201c Who will perform at the Big Game? \u201d A Polymarket contract had more than $10 million in volume.<\/p>\n Cardi B joined singers Karol G and Young Miko and actors Jessica Alba and Pedro Pascal on a starry front porch during the halftime spectacle. She danced to the music, but it was unclear whether she was singing along during the show, which included performances by Ricky Martin and Lady Gaga.<\/p>\n Due to \u201cambiguity over whether or not Cardi B\u2019s attendance at the 2026 Super Bowl halftime show constituted a qualifying \u2018performance,\u2019\u201d Kalshi cited one of its rules in settling the market at the last price before trading was paused: $0.74 for No holders and $0.26 for Yes holders. The platform returned all the money to its users.<\/p>\n Polymarket\u2019s contract was resolved as Cardi B had performed, but the yes was disputed. A final decision on the contract is expected to be announced on Wednesday.<\/p>\n In the CFTC complaint \u2014 first reported by the Event Horizon newsletter and posted by Front Office Sports \u2014 the trader alleges that Kalshi violated the Commodity Exchange Act with how it resolved the Cardi B contract. The trader \u2014 a Yes holder \u2014 is seeking $3,700.<\/p>\n A CFTC spokesman declined comment on Wednesday.<\/p>\n The Super Bowl capped a big NFL season for prediction markets.<\/p>\n Kalshi reported a daily record high of more than $1 billion in total trading volume on the day of the game, an increase of more than 2,700% compared to last year\u2019s Super Bowl. The season-long total for all Super Bowl winner futures was $828.6 million, up more than 2,000% from last year.<\/p>\n The increased activity on Sunday caused some deposit issues. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara posted on X on Monday that the \u201ctraffic spike was way bigger than our most optimistic forecasts.\u201d She said the platform had reimbursed processing fees on the effected deposits and added credits to users who experienced delays.<\/p>\n Robinhood Markets highlighted the strength of its prediction markets when it announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and full 2025 on Tuesday.<\/p>\n \u201cI think we are just at the beginning of a prediction market super cycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time,\u201d CEO Vlad Tenev said during an earnings call. \u201cThis year is going to be a big year. Olympics are going on right now. World Cup coming in the summer.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" CHICAGO \u2014 Cardi B was part of Bad Bunny\u2019s Super Bowl halftime show. What she…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22233,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22232","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dailywashingtoninsider.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22232","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dailywashingtoninsider.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dailywashingtoninsider.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dailywashingtoninsider.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dailywashingtoninsider.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22232"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dailywashingtoninsider.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22232\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dailywashingtoninsider.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22233"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dailywashingtoninsider.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22232"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dailywashingtoninsider.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22232"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dailywashingtoninsider.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22232"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}