Any tourist wandering through the glitzy lobby of Singapore\u2019s Shangri-La Hotel this weekend would have stumbled on a rather bizarre scene. <\/p>\n
Military officers from around the world thronged the halls of the luxury hotel, their shoulders dripping with gold braids and epaulets, complicated colored bars lined up on the chests of their dress uniforms like some martial game of Tetris. <\/p>\n
Every few minutes a defense minister strode purposely through the mix, surrounded by a phalanx of aides and escorts. <\/p>\n
This gathering is an annual spectacle that to the uninitiated might seem surreal. But the topics being discussed here are deadly serious. <\/p>\n
The annual Shangri-La Dialogue is one of the few places in the world where you can watch warriors who spend their careers preparing for armed conflict, engaged in polite, carefully-moderated debate. <\/p>\n
The stakes this year could hardly be higher. <\/p>\n
War rages in both the Middle East and Europe. Meanwhile China\u2019s increasingly assertive moves has much of the Asia-Pacific on edge. <\/p>\n
The Singapore summit brought key players together. <\/p>\n
Where else would you have the President of the Philippines, a nation whichdo has seen its vessels increasingly targeted by Chinese coast guard ships in the disputed South China Sea, deliver a keynote address on the same stage that, two days later, Beijing\u2019s new Defense Minister makes his debut appearance? <\/p>\n
There was even a surprise appearance from Ukraine\u2019s embattled president Volodymyr Zelensky \u2013 and a first face-to-face meeting between US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart Adm Dong Jun. <\/p>\n
Given its location in the city-state of Singapore, events in Asia \u2013 and in particular China\u2019s behavior in the region \u2013 stalked the conference. <\/p>\n
In his keynote speech, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued a stark warning about the ongoing confrontations between Philippine and China Coast Guard vessels in a contested part of the South China Sea. <\/p>\n
\u201cIf a Filipino citizen is killed by a willful act,\u201d he said, \u201cthat is I think, very, very close to what we define as an act of war.\u201d <\/p>\n
Two days later, China\u2019s Adm Dong fired back from the same stage, accusing the Philippines of \u201cblackmail\u201d in the maritime dispute. <\/p>\n
\u201cThere is a limit to our restraint,\u201d said Admiral Dong Jun. <\/p>\n
\u201cI saw that as a threat,\u201d said Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a research professor at Indonesia\u2019s National Research and Innovation Center who has been attending the Shangri-La Dialogue since its founding twenty-one years ago. <\/p>\n
\u201cIn decades past, the Chinese only came in a small number and they were extremely quiet,\u201d she said. \u201cNow they\u2019re very self confident\u2026they intervene in all the sessions.\u201d <\/p>\n
The open nature of the Shangri-La Dialogue provides delegates with a unique opportunity to ask blunt questions of speakers. <\/p>\n
After his speech on Sunday, China\u2019s Dong received many questions from audience members on Beijing\u2019s increased threats towards self-governing Taiwan as well as its disputed claims in the South China Sea, and he replied in unapologetic terms. <\/p>\n
The \u201cseparatists\u201d in Taiwan\u2019s newly-elected government would be \u201cnailed to the pillar of shame in history,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n
But equally, Chinese military officers also used Q&A sessions at other key moments to make their views known. <\/p>\n
Senior Colonel Yanzhong Cao of China\u2019s People\u2019s Liberation Army asked US Secretary of Defense asked US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin whether the US was trying to build a NATO-like alliance in the Asia-Pacific region, adding the claim \u201cthe eastward expansion of NATO has led to the Ukraine crisis.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cI respectfully disagree,\u201d Austin replied, the audience in the ballroom then erupting into a rare burst of applause. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe Ukraine crisis obviously was caused because Mr. Putin made a decision to unlawfully invade his neighbor,\u201d Austin continued. \u201cThis was brought on because of a decision by Mr. Putin.\u201d <\/p>\n
Later that day, Ukrainian leader Zelensky got a borderline rock star welcome when he made a surprise appearance at the conference, dressed in his trademark fatigues and black t-shirt. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe stand with you,\u201d Ng Eng Hen, Singapore\u2019s minister of defense, later said to Zelensky. <\/p>\n
But the large contingent of Chinese army officers present at other sessions was notably absent during Zelensky\u2019s speech and the Ukrainian leader said he failed to secure a one-on-one meeting with Chinese officials during his Singapore visit. <\/p>\n
He also accused Beijing of aiding Ukraine\u2019s mortal enemy. <\/p>\n
\u201cWith China\u2019s support to Russia, the war will last longer. That is bad for the whole world, and the policy of China \u2013 who declares that it supports territorial integrity and sovereignty and declares it officially. For them it is not good,\u201d Zelensky told journalists. <\/p>\n
It was not clear whether Zelensky succeeded in securing new support for Kyiv from non-aligned south-east Asian countries like Malaysia and Indonesia. <\/p>\n
Instead, Indonesian president-elect and retired general Prabowo Subianto \u2013 the new leader of the world\u2019s most populous Muslim majority nation \u2013 spent much of his speech calling for an end to the on-going carnage in Gaza and an investigation into recent Israeli attacks that killed dozens of displaced civilians in Rafah. <\/p>\n
Another political elephant in the room was what direction might the United States be heading in. <\/p>\n
The Singapore gathering began just hours after a 12-person jury in a court-room in New York City convicted former US President Donald Trump on of all 34 counts of falsifying business records in his hush money criminal trial. <\/p>\n
Asia is watching very closely for whether Trump will return to office in November and what impact that might have on the world\u2019s most populous continent and a region already fraught with very real geopolitical fault lines. <\/p>\n
His fellow Republican Senator Dan Sullivan also requested not to discuss Trump during a meeting with journalists, instead directing reporters to a press release. <\/p>\n
\u201cThis is a very sad day for American and the rule of law,\u201d Sullivan\u2019s statement said, calling the verdict a \u201cgross abuse of our justice system.\u201d <\/p>\n
But speaking to journalists, the Senator from Alaska also celebrated what he called America\u2019s \u201ccommitment to liberty and democracy,\u201d saying this marked a competitive advantage over \u201cauthoritarian aggression led by China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.\u201d <\/p>\n
Sullivan was part of a bi-partisan delegation seeking to demonstrate Congressional commitment to US allies in Asia. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe dictators we are allied against\u2026are ally poor,\u201d Sullivan said. <\/p>\n
But there are clearly concerns about US reliability. <\/p>\n
An academic from Japan \u2013 Washington\u2019s closest ally in Asia \u2013 asked defense chiefs from Singapore and Malaysia about Trump\u2019s possible re-election. He called it a \u201cnightmare\u201d scenario. <\/p>\n
That triggered nervous laughter from the audience and on stage. <\/p>\n
Singapore\u2019s Dr. Ng Eng Hen gamely responded, \u201cwe will work with any administration in any country if we can find common ground.\u201d <\/p>\n
I vividly remember collective nervousness at the 2017 Shangri-La Dialogue, held just months after Trump\u2019s inauguration. <\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s then secretary of defense James Mattis clearly sought to reassure American defense partners worried about the new mercurial president. <\/p>\n
\u201cBear with us,\u201d Mattis told the audience, after being asked whether the \u201cAmerica First\u201d commander-in-chief would contribute to the destruction of the post-World War II order. <\/p>\n
\u201cOnce we\u2019ve exhausted all possible alternatives, the Americans will do the right thing. We will still be there.\u201d <\/p>\n
Seven years later, uncertainty over the political future of the US is just one of many challenges facing policy makers. <\/p>\n
One by one, the leaders of armies and navies shared their fears about climate change, nuclear proliferation, wars in Europe and the Middle East and concerns that a miscalculation between the US and Chinese militaries could spiral out of control <\/p>\n
\u201cThe world cannot withstand a third geopolitical shock,\u201d Singaporean defense chief Dr. Ng warned, after invoking the Gaza and Ukraine conflicts. <\/p>\n
In this tense geopolitical environment, it\u2019s far better for commanders to put on their dress uniforms and rub shoulders in the halls of a five-star hotel, than aim at each other over gun barrels on the battlefield. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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