In the days after Hamas\u2019 October 7 attack on Israel, fears ran high of a regional war. The conflict would not be contained in Gaza, the thinking went \u2013 \u202fHezbollah would attack Israel from the north, the Houthis from Yemen, and Iranian proxies from Iraq. Israel would be forced to respond, it would come into direct conflict with Iran, and the wider war would be upon us. <\/p>\n
Nearly one year later, all those things have come to pass. A day after Iran launched its largest ever ballistic missile attack on Israel \u2013 and as Israeli troops battle Hezbollah fighters on the ground in Lebanon \u2013 regional war is effectively here. The big question now is: Will it escalate, or cool? <\/p>\n
Israel\u2019s leaders stand at a juncture. When Iran first staged a missile attack in April, in retaliation for an Israeli strike on Iran\u2019s consulate in Damascus, Israel was restrained, striking only an Iranian air defense installation in response. <\/p>\n
But Iran\u2019s attack on Tuesday night was unprecedented in its ferocity. Despite some strikes on Israeli bases, damage was minimal, nearly all missiles were intercepted, and one person \u2013 a Palestinian man struck by shrapnel in the Israeli-occupied West Bank \u2013 was killed. <\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s government has \u201cabsolutely no interest in a broader war,\u201d government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said Wednesday, adding that the country restrained itself after the assassination in July of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran \u201cdespite demands\u201d from its people to respond. <\/p>\n
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ridden a string of assassinations around the Middle East to a remarkable political rehabilitation. Israel\u2019s bombing campaign in Lebanon has devastated the civilian population \u2013 displacing more than 1 million people \u2013 but has achieved a long-coveted goal of at least temporarily neutering a persistent threat to the north. Why not seize the moment to weaken the patron state itself, Iran? <\/p>\n
\u201cThe elimination of Nasrallah is a necessary condition in achieving the objectives we have set: Returning the residents of the north safely to their homes and changing the balance of power in the region for years,\u201d Netanyahu said in the wake of a massive strike in Beirut last month that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. <\/p>\n
Two days later, he addressed Iranians themselves, saying, \u201cwhen Iran is finally free, and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think, everything will be different.\u201d <\/p>\n
His stance is in tune with Israeli public opinion too. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is leading the charge pushing for a maximalist response to Tehran\u2019s attack, proposing that Israel bomb Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities, which the US and others say are responsible for a weapons program, a charge Iran has long denied. <\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s two arms to fight Israel \u2013 Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon \u2013\u202f\u201care temporarily paralyzed,\u201d Bennett said. \u201cSo it\u2019s like a boxer out in the ring without arms for the next few minutes. Now is the time that we can attack, because Iran is fully vulnerable.\u201d <\/p>\n
That response, of course, carries with it the danger of the unknown. Hezbollah is certainly weakened, but no one knows for certain how much capacity it still has. The US government believes that Iran could build a bomb in just weeks once it decides to do so. Short of the nuclear option, Tehran has other ways of applying further pressure on Israel and its allies. Escalating responses could spiral completely out of anyone\u2019s control and drag allies into the fight. <\/p>\n
The former senior Israeli military official explained that \u201cthere are always schools of thought.\u201d Bennett\u2019s, according to the official, is that \u201cit\u2019s time to neutralize the whole axis of evil. We started with Hamas, then Hezbollah. It is now the time for Iran, maybe Syria.\u201d <\/p>\n
The former official said they had no direct knowledge of Israel\u2019s plans but requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. <\/p>\n
\u201cLast night it seemed to me like it was going to be an overwhelming response,\u201d they said. \u201cThis morning, I am getting messages that they are taking the time to think.\u201d <\/p>\n
A more restrained response would see Israel target a military facility, as Iran did on Tuesday in Israel. <\/p>\n
\u201cYou could hit infrastructure, very similar to what happened in Yemen,\u201d the former official, referring to an Israeli bombing campaign on the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah on Sunday. \u201cNational export of oil, or anything else.\u201d <\/p>\n
The unknown factor is how far Israel\u2019s most important ally \u2013 the United States \u2013 will go in supporting its response. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe have made clear that there will be consequences \u2014 severe consequences \u2014 for this attack, and we will work with Israel to make that the case,\u201d US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Tuesday. \u201cIt is too early for me to tell you anything publicly in terms of our assessment or in terms of what our expectations are of the Israelis or the advice that we would give them.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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