Ukraine\u2019s incursion into Russia\u2019s Kursk region is now entering its third month, with scores of settlements still firmly under its control. <\/p>\n
The operation marked the first time foreign troops entered Russian territory since World War II \u2013 embarrassing the Kremlin and proving to Kyiv\u2019s backers and the rest of the world that Ukraine\u2019s military was not perpetually on the back foot. <\/p>\n
Some nine weeks later, Ukraine\u2019s advance has stalled, and neither side has made major gains or counterattacks in recent days. <\/p>\n
The endgame is unclear. Analysts believe Kyiv is trying to use its initial momentum for a morale boost and a potential bargaining chip, while Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to downplay the entire incursion and limit the resources Russia\u2019s war machine devotes to countering it. <\/p>\n
Ukraine has maintained a foothold in Kursk of about 786 square kilometers (300 square miles), according to the latest assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a think tank in Washington, DC. <\/p>\n
Ukraine\u2019s main foothold is around the Russian town of Sudzha and its military is trying to establish a second foothold around Veseloe village. Ukraine has not disclosed how many troops it has sent to the region. <\/p>\n
Russia has deployed a reasonably large number of troops \u2013 estimated at 40,000 \u2013 to defend and counterattack in Kursk, but analyst Mark Galeotti described the initial force as \u201cbuilt from wherever they can find,\u201d with Russia using conscripts and reservists at the outset of the incursion. <\/p>\n
Moscow has since deployed more experienced forces, but not as many resources as Russian civilians in Kursk would perhaps want. <\/p>\n
As fighting in the area continues, Russian authorities say more than 100,000 civilians have been displaced, while many others find themselves living behind Ukrainian lines. <\/p>\n
\u201cOver time, there is a degree to which the Kursk operation has become normalized,\u201d Galeotti said. \u201cWe shouldn\u2019t assume that Russians have just come to accept it\u2026 I think Putin has managed to postpone judgment, but I don\u2019t think it\u2019s been completely waived.\u201d <\/p>\n
Russia is trying to avoid diverting any resources from the frontlines of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine to fight in Kursk. <\/p>\n
Although the incursion was initially a shock to both the government and ordinary Russians, \u201cthe Kremlin has played this down,\u201d according to John Lough, an associate fellow at Chatham House\u2019s Russia and Eurasia Program. \u201cThe strategy is to distract the population from what\u2019s happened, which is undoubtedly a major embarrassment, and to create the impression that this is not serious.\u201d <\/p>\n
Putin\u2019s government has characterized it as a \u201craid\u201d and even downplayed their counterattack as a \u201ccounterterrorism mission.\u201d <\/p>\n
One Russian military blogger put the normalization into stark words, saying: \u201cMost of Russia has already got used to the fighting near Kursk\u2026 Those who have nothing to do with the Kursk region are rather sluggishly interested in what is happening.\u201d <\/p>\n
Frontlines are moving only slightly, but the fighting is reportedly fierce, with Russian forces deploying numerous drones, barrel artillery and aerial bombers, according to the Ukrainian commander. <\/p>\n
\u201cThey don\u2019t hesitate to drop a bomb on a tree line if they assume we have troops there,\u201d Ukrainian battalion commander \u201cKholod\u201d said. He claims Russia has now sent a powerful group of troops and combat brigades to where his unit is fighting in Kursk, and argued the Russian counterattack was staved off by Ukraine\u2019s drone and mine attacks. <\/p>\n
The incursion into Kursk likely had multiple goals, analysts say, including giving Ukraine a narrative win. <\/p>\n
\u201cTheir goal was to demonstrate to Ukraine\u2019s Western allies that the Russians are vulnerable and that there are limits to their ability to deploy combat power,\u201d said Lough, adding that the incursion also highlighted how \u201cRussia\u2019s red lines are rhetorical.\u201d <\/p>\n
Yet Ukraine\u2019s goal of diverting troops from the eastern frontline to Kursk has so far failed. <\/p>\n
Kursk could still be a bargaining chip for negotiations in the future, though, experts said. <\/p>\n
\u201cBy taking this territory, they immediately ruled out the possibility of both the Russians and the Western allies saying, \u2018Now it\u2019s time to stop. Let\u2019s have a ceasefire,\u2019\u201d Lough said. <\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the primary focus of the war remains on the frontlines in Ukraine\u2019s eastern Donbas region, where its troops are fighting to retain control of the strategic city of Pokrovsk. <\/p>\n
Rather than focus resources on liberating their own territory, the Russian military has expanded its assaults on multiple fronts in Ukraine, including in key areas of Kharkiv, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt seems to be a very high priority for the Kremlin to advance as far as possible in Donbas, regardless of the losses,\u201d Lough added. \u201cThere is a sort of window that is about to close, because you get to this time of year when the roads turn to mud.\u201d <\/p>\n
Russia\u2019s daily attacks on Ukraine continued Thursday, with several people killed in the regions of Odesa, Kherson and Donetsk. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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